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August 2018Forecasts

European Gas Markets Forecast – August 2018

Aurora’s update presents Aurora’s latest view on the state of the European gas market, and includes our updated outlook on natural gas prices, demand, and supply in Europe to 2040. ...
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8 August 2018   |   Tagesspiegel Energie & Klima

The price is hot

"Evaluation from the proprietary EOS energy market database of Aurora Energy Research shows that current demand can only be met by relatively expensive gas turbines (without steam turbines). With prices in the early morning and evening, these systems are just about "in the money" and then supply electricity. Project manager Hanns Koenig said the situation in the market was tense at times, but still in the green. "In many European countries, for example in Poland, high prices in summer are not unusual due to the heat load for conventional power plants, but in Germany they are. In Germany, price peaks and shortages tend to occur in winter""

August 2018Research notes

GB Balancing Mechanism Summary – July 2018

Aurora’s Flexibility Market Summary provide a concise monthly review of recent events in key markets for flexible technologies. The initial focus is on the balancing mechanism and firm ...
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August 2018Research notes

GB Wholesale Market Summary – July 2018

Aurora’s GB Wholesale Market Summary provides a monthly summary of key characteristics in the wholesale market, ranging from overviews of fundamental system drivers to estimates of ...
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August 2018Research notes

North West Europe Gas System Performance – June 2018

Aurora’s gas system performance report provides a monthly snapshot of key operating characteristics for the European gas market. The key statistics include prices, volumes, trade, ...
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31 July 2018   |   Reuters

Why natural gas alone is not an alternative to coal

"A new study by the Institute of Electrical Systems and Energy Economics at RWTH Aachen University reports that lignite-fired power plants could be replaced by the existing gas-fired power plants without endangering electricity supply, saving around 70 million tonnes of CO2 per year from 2020. According to energy expert Hanns Koenig, project manager at Aurora Energy Research, the calculation of RWTH Aachen University on behalf of the German Gas and Water Association (DVGW) misses an important point: “After the nuclear phase-out in 2023, we would no longer be able to cover our peak load in winter, on days when renewables supply less electricity,” he says. The lights would not necessarily go out, because electricity could be imported or provided by reserve power plants. "this is an important point that is not taken into account in the study," says Koenig."

July 2018Research notes

GB FFR Market Summary – July 2018

Aurora’s Flexibility Market Summary provide a concise monthly review of recent events in key markets for flexible technologies. The initial focus is on the balancing mechanism and firm ...
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July 2018Research notes

GB Balancing Mechanism Summary – June 2018

Aurora’s Flexibility Market Summary provide a concise monthly review of recent events in key markets for flexible technologies. The initial focus is on the balancing mechanism and firm ...
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26 July 2018   |   Reuters

Trump’s plan for U.S. LNG in Europe to face reality check

"President Donald Trump’s plan for “vast amounts” of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) to be sold to the European Union after trade talks with its top representative faces a reality test. Global gas price signals determine LNG trade flows, Royal Dutch Shell Chief Executive Ben van Beurden said on Thursday. Politicians have little sway over this. The EU applies zero tariffs on U.S. LNG imports, so cutting them is not an option to boost trade in any future U.S.-EU talks. Europe’s declining domestic production of gas from the North Sea, Netherlands, Germany and Norway leaves a growing gap for Russia and potential LNG suppliers in the United States to exploit.Thomas Kusterer, chief financial officer for German utility EnBW, said on Thursday that he would consider purchasing U.S. LNG if it became cheaper than other sources. Having more LNG options will help Europe avoid being overcharged by Russia, analysts say. “LNG is a valuable option for Europe, it can create negotiating power,” said Hanns Koenig of Aurora Energy Research. "

July 2018Forecasts

Global Energy Markets Forecasts – July 2018

Along with brief commentary on market movements over the past quarter, our July 2018 Global Energy Markets Forecast presents Aurora’s outlook to 2035 for global energy markets.
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Rethinking energy