Aurora Ireland Flexible Energy Add-On 2018
Aurora’s Ireland Flexible Energy Add-On 2018, builds on its Ireland Single Electricity Market Forecast released in May 2018. This new report presents a deep dive into flexible and distributed generation in SEM and I-SEM, encompassing policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, DS3 forecasts, and investment case analyses. The report also contains an update of Aurora’s central forecast from the H1 SEM Forecast.
The analysis draws on Aurora’s internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.
Key messages from the report include:
- Increasing renewables penetration and retiring baseload assets provides space for 3GW of flexible generation to enter the all-island system by 2030, opening up a €3.3 billion investment opportunity
- Total DS3 spending will reach €200 million annually by 2025, as batteries and fast-responding DSR dominate payments under regulated arrangements
- Grid connection scarcity will prevent excess entry of batteries, making revisions of standard tariffs unlikely. This implies high opportunity cost of foregoing standard contracts, with the resulting expected clearing tariffs for fixed contracts at over 75% of standard tariffs (FFR-TOR2).
- Growing price volatility and increasing CM prices boost the revenues of gas reciprocating engines enabling them to enter the market in mid-2020s.
The underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.
The next update of this report will be distributed in H1 2018.
If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.