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Home/Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – December 2018

Aurora Ireland I-SEM Forecast – December 2018

Aurora are pleased to present our Ireland I-SEM Forecast for December 2018. This report presents a holistic overview of the current and future state of the power markets on the island of Ireland, including deep analysis of energy and climate policies, generation technologies, demand evolution, fuel and carbon prices. Our analysis encompassing policy and regulation updates, market and technology overviews, forecasts for electricity prices, distributions, capacity and generation, and sensitivities.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key messages from the report include:

  • Rising gas and carbon prices push up wholesale prices by an average of €6.2/MWh in the period to 2025
  • Increased demand and peaker output supports spark spreads to 2040, though CCGT load factors will drop to 50%
  • Increased renewable deployment in GB and France increases interconnector import to I-SEM, though SNSP limit prevents average baseload prices from dropping below €70/MWh in the 2030s

The underlying data can be downloaded in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

The next update of this report will be distributed in H1 2019.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.

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