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Home/Aurora Polish Power Market Forecast, June 2020

Aurora Polish Power Market Forecast, June 2020

We are pleased to present our latest Polish Power Market Forecast as of H1 2020. This update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the Polish power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance until 2040.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key highlights of this report include: ​

  • COVID-19 economic impact has reflected on demand as well as on commodity markets, leading to 15-20 PLN/MWh lower baseload prices on average in the short term
  • Compared to our H2 2019 report, baseload power price is on average 5-10 PLN/MWh (~2%) lower in long term
  • We have improved both onshore and offshore wind technology in Poland with help of in-house modelling
  • This decrease is mainly driven by more renewables entering the system, both in Poland and in neighbouring countries, due to both more political support and greater system flexibility
  • This update also reflects our latest fuel price updates, incorporating lower gas and coal prices in the near term, as well as significantly higher carbon prices reflecting the progress on the European Green Deal

The report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch
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  • The Polish capacity market price is higher than expected by the majority of experts, who believed that the situation in Poland would repeat what happened in Great Britain, where the price last year amounted to 22.5 pounds, i.e. about 115 PLN. Why did this happen? In July 2018 Hanns Koenig and Filip Piasecki from Aurora Energy Research managed to more or less accurately predict the price (they forecasted PLN 249) and highlighted three main reasons. Firstly, much higher investment needs of Polish coal-fired power plants, which have to adapt to the stringent emissions standards. Secondly, there is little competition, with only 15% excess demand. In addition, Poland has much lower embedded/distributed benefits, which contributed to lower bids in the British market.

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  • Aurora's Iberian Power Market Forecast presents a comprehensive view on the state of the Spanish and Portuguese power markets, and includes our latest outlook on prices, production, capacity, and asset performance to 2050.

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  • Our French Power Market Forecast serves as a comprehensive stock-taking document which critically analyses the potential outcomes of the PPE (The French 2019 Programmation Pluriannuelle de l’Energie) and provides Aurora’s independent central view on the future evolution of the French power system.

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