Aurora Polish Power Market Forecast, June 2020
We are pleased to present our latest Polish Power Market Forecast as of H1 2020. This update presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of the Polish power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance until 2040.
The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.
Key highlights of this report include:
- COVID-19 economic impact has reflected on demand as well as on commodity markets, leading to 15-20 PLN/MWh lower baseload prices on average in the short term
- Compared to our H2 2019 report, baseload power price is on average 5-10 PLN/MWh (~2%) lower in long term
- We have improved both onshore and offshore wind technology in Poland with help of in-house modelling
- This decrease is mainly driven by more renewables entering the system, both in Poland and in neighbouring countries, due to both more political support and greater system flexibility
- This update also reflects our latest fuel price updates, incorporating lower gas and coal prices in the near term, as well as significantly higher carbon prices reflecting the progress on the European Green Deal
The report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.