+44 (0) 1865 952700 |
Press enquiries
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.


Home/Impact of COVID-19 on the French Power Market – May 2020

Impact of COVID-19 on the French Power Market – May 2020

We are pleased to release our report detailing the implications of COVID-19 on the French power market. This document also serves as an update to the analysis presented in our H1 2020 Power Market Forecast (published in April) to account for EDF’s latest announcement on reducing nuclear output until 2022.

Key highlights include:

  • Characterised as a pandemic by the WHO in March, COVID-19 has led to far-reaching consequences across the global economy and inevitably, the power industry
  • Strict lockdown measures and restrictions on economic activities have resulted in steep declines in European gas prices and power demand. Consequently, monthly average wholesale prices in France have dipped to a recent historic low of 14.7 €/MWh
  • Demand is starting to recover with the easing of lockdowns – average weekly demand on w.c. 11 May has recovered to levels in late March 2020
  • Lasting implications could ensue in power markets if a severe economic downturn develops globally. Aurora’s Central view assumes a mild downturn where demand increases to previously assumed levels by 2021, while the recovery in commodity prices happen by the mid- 2020s
  • Relative to a pre-COVID scenario, lower demand and commodity prices result in average annual baseload prices falling by 6.7 €/MWh (or 14%) between 2020 – 2023. However, EDF’s decision to reduce low cost nuclear output limits this to 3.7 €/MWh (or 7.8%)
  • Similarly, average annual solar and onshore wind capture prices dip by 11 – 14% between 2020-2023. The reduction in EDF’s nuclear production limits this to 2 – 8%
  • The reduction in French nuclear output and exports increases the baseload price of neighbouring countries by up to 1.8 €/MWh

The report can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you have questions, or suggestions for additional content, please get in touch.

View Report

Our subscription services

Our subscription service provides you with long-term market forecasts, strategic insight reports, interactive client forums and access to our market data and analytics platform.

Interested? Please sign up to receive our complimentary monthly summary reports via email. Simply tick which reports you would like to receive. Please indicate your consent in the box provided and view our privacy policy.

If you would like further information on a particular subscription service or report please enter further information in the box provided.



  • Please find our privacy policy here

  • Aurora's French power Market Forecast quarterly update presents our comprehensive views on the state of the French power market, and includes our latest outlook on prices, generation, capacity, and asset performance to 2040.

    Read More
  • We are pleased to present Aurora’s new strategic insight report 'The E-Mobility Revolution: Impacts of EVs on the French Power Market’

    Read More
  • This report, presented in Aurora's May Group Meeting, presents Aurora’s analysis on French nuclear ramp down and implications for GB

    Read More