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Home/European Gas Markets Forecast – February 2020

European Gas Markets Forecast – February 2020

We are pleased to present the latest edition of our European Gas Markets Forecast. It presents Aurora’s latest view on the state of the European gas markets, and includes our updated outlook on natural gas prices to 2040, as well as detailed analysis of market and policy developments.

The report is presented in a concise slide-based format. Highlights since our October 2019 European Gas Markets Forecast quarterly update include:

  • Futures have decreased by €1.3/MWh (7.8%) on average between 2020 and 2025, reflecting continued healthy storage inventories and expectations that new LNG supply will lead to an oversupply in the near term, as well as muted gas demand for the winter period
  • On the pipeline front, Gazprom continued to struggle to construct the NS2 project due to new challenges brought by US sanctions, which itself led Russia to settle the dispute over the transit deal with Ukraine; TurkStream 1 and 2 began commercial operations, delivering gas to both Bulgaria and Turkey
  • On the LNG front, the European Commission approved a new financing system for Klaipeda LNG; Elengy signed a MoU for development of Rubis LNG storage to deal with rising LNG demand in gas isolated regions
  • In the policy space, despite EIB’s commitment to phase out funding for fossil fuels, the EC’s fourth PCI list contained gas because of the potential for green gas; whilst the EU implemented its EU Green Deal

If you would like to discuss the findings or become a subscriber, please get in touch.

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