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Home/GB Renewables Forecast – H2 2018

GB Renewables Forecast – H2 2018

Aurora is pleased to present its latest GB Renewables Forecast, H2 2018. This presents Aurora’s comprehensive view on the state of Renewables in the GB power market, and includes our latest outlook on subsidy-free business models, and regional differences in prices, production and capacity to 2040.

The analysis draws on our internal modelling capabilities, and much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private and public sector players.

Key messages from the report include:

  • Under current policy framework, subsidy-free onshore wind and solar will become viable in the early 2020s, delivering 10 GW of capacity by 2030.
  • Early subsidy-free developments can take advantage of cost savings and synergies of co-location with battery storage.
  • Price cannibalisation will increase substantially.
  • Aurora estimates the long-term P90 capture price for wind and solar at £31-35/MWh; gas prices and further subsidies are the key risks.
  • Access to capacity and frequency response markets lift project IRRs by up to 1 percentage point.
  • BEIS’ proposed changes to reference price forecasting will reduce risk of budget overspend and limit subsidised offshore wind deployment in the 2020s.
  • Price floor mechanism offers a viable policy solution for subsidy-free support for onshore wind and solar.

The exhibits from the report, can be downloaded in PDF and the underlying data in Excel format from the download section of EOS.

If you would like to discuss the findings, please get in touch.

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