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Home/German Renewables Market Forecast – August 2020

German Renewables Market Forecast – August 2020

We are pleased to present Aurora’s German Renewables Forecast.

This quarterly update presents a deep and comprehensive overview of Renewables in the German power market. This includes an analysis of the current state of play of renewables along with recent policy changes, the pipeline of future projects and the economics of subsidy-free business models, P90 risk analysis and PPA price benchmarking.

The analysis draws upon our internal modelling capabilities, which enables us to forecast electricity prices, future generation mix, and price dispersion. Much of the content has been developed through a detailed consultation process across private- and public-sector players.

Highlights from this detailed look at the role of renewables in Germany include:

  • Increased RES capacity: Following the removal of the 52 GW solar PV cap and the new Offshore Wind Energy Draft Act, we expect an additional 6 GW of solar PV and 5 GW offshore wind by 2040
  • Lower commodity prices: As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic we see lower gas-, coal- and carbon prices in the short-term
  • Lower capture prices: Compared to our April 2020 report, capture prices for renewables are 1 EUR/MWh lower on average due to lower commodity prices and higher RES capacity
  • More regular updates: We are moving our publication schedule to quarterly updates

Not a subscriber and want to know what to expect? View a teaser here.

If you would like to discuss the findings, or become a subscriber please get in touch.

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