The Global Energy Markets Forecast report presents Aurora’s outlook to 2040 for global energy markets, including global oil and coal price forecasts and gas price forecasts for NW Europe, US and Japan.
Key hightlights of the August Report include:
- Relative to our April 2019 forecast, our gas price outlook over the period 2019-2025 has decreased by an average of €0.7/MWh (3.5%) for NW European prices. Our outlook for Japanese and Henry Hub prices has increased by an average of €0.5/MWh (1.9%) and €0.1/MWh (0.4%) respectively. Full storages from a milder-than-seasonally normal winter and a healthy supply of LNG caused European prices to fall, whilst increased exports of gas to Mexico caused the Henry Hub price to rise very slightly.
- Compared to our April 2019 forecast, the ARA coal price is lower by an average of $4.9 per tonne (7.0%) between 2019-2025. The price rise is due to the continuing slowdown in Chinese economic activity amidst ongoing trade tensions.
- The Brent crude oil price is $0.6 per barrel (0.8%) higher than our April 2019 forecast over the period 2019-2025, driven primarily by increased supply-side uncertainty caused by the ratcheting of rhetoric between Iran and USA, concerning the shipping of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.
- Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline continued to make progress, even as progress on some international pipelines to China slowed. Support for European LNG terminals accelerated and a Mozambique LNG project received FID. Coal consumption in emerging economies continued to increase, whilst Australia’s largest new planned coal mine continued to struggle with poor economics. Iranian and Venezuelan oil production continued to be in free-fall, whilst Chinese and Indian oil demand continued to soften due to a weakening economic outlook.
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