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Home/Global Energy Markets Forecasts – January 2019

Global Energy Markets Forecasts – January 2019

Aurora’s Global Energy Markets Forecast presents Aurora’s outlook to 2040 for global energy markets, including oil and coal price forecasts and gas price forecasts for NW Europe, US and Japan and substantial commentary on market and policy movements over the previous quarter.

Key highlights include:

  • Oil prices have decreased by an average of 1.4%, or $0.9/bbl from 2019 to 2025, relative to our October 2018 forecast, due to a supply-demand imbalance caused by surplus OPEC production in the face of waivers for buyers of Iranian crude and continued uncertainty over the outlook for global demand in the face of trade tensions and monetary tightening.
  • Relative to our October 2018 forecast, our outlook for NW European prices over the period 2019-2025 has decreased by an average of 1.1%, or $0.1 per MMBtu and Japanese prices are lower by an average of 0.9% or $0.08 per MMBtu across the same time period – both due to a milder start to the Asian winter and a well supplied LNG market; US prices are higher by an average of 0.9%, or $0.03 per MMBtu due to a colder than normal start to winter and low gas storage stocks.
  • Compared to our October 2018 forecast, coal prices are higher by an average of 0.6%, or $0.4 per tonne between 2019-2025, due to an expectation of a rebound from the near term coal import restrictions imposed by the Chinese authorities this winter and continued expectation of rising Asian demand.

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